With events in the region of Eastern Ukraine and the Gazza strip dominating the end of last week there is nothing to suggest that things will change quickly and so uncertainty within markets is bound to cause some volatility in the coming week.
On the economic data front below is a rundown on what can be expected in the week ahead.
German PPI for June, Price growth should rise to 0.1% from -0.2% m/m, and from -0.8% to -0.7% y/y. Market to watch: DAX, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP
Chicago Federal Reserve index for June, the activity index was at 0.21 last month, any increase could be good news for equity markets. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses.
US CPI for June, US price growth is forecast to shrink to 0.3% from 0.4% m/m, and remain steady at 2.1% y/y. Market to watch: Dollar crosses. Richmond Federal Reserve index for July, This index is forecast to rise to 5 from 3 last month. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses. US existing home sales for July, home sales in the US have eased lately, and the m/m % change is expected to weaken again to 1.6% from the last reading of 4.9%, the annual rate is expected to rise to 4.97 million from 4.89 million. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses.
Australian CPI for Q2, Australian prices should ease on a Q/Q basis to 0.5% from 0.6%, but increase Y/Y from 2.9% to 3%. Market to watch: AUD/USD.
Bank of England minutes, there was no change at the latest meeting, the hawkish commentary has been building, especially now data is coming in much stronger. Keep an eye out for any changes to the usual 9-0 consensus on rates. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP.
HSBC China manufacturing PMI preliminary July HSBC’s estimate of growth should edge further into growth, from 50.7 to 51 this month. Market to watch: China A50, Hang Seng, FTSE 100, copper, AUD/USD.
German manufacturing, services, composite PMI for July, German data has been weaker, and all three indices are forecasted to be edge lower, to 51.9, 54.4 and 53.8 respectively. Market to watch: DAX, EUR/USD
Eurozone manufacturing, services, composite PMI for July a similar situation prevails in the Eurozone, with indices forecast to be easier coming in at 51.7, 52.6 and 52.7 respectively. Market to watch: EUR/USD, Euro Stoxx 50
UK retail sales for June, consumer spending in the UK is perhaps the last piece of the puzzle, but with recent data showing wage growth is still weak these figures may come in below expectations. However, growth m/m is forecast to be 0.2% from -0.5%, and y/y holding steady at 3.9%. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP.
US initial jobless claims fell to 302K last week, but are forecast to rise to 310K this week. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses.
US manufacturing PMI for July is expected to rise to 57.5 from 57.3 last month. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses. US new home sales for June are expected to weaken, highlighting the uncertain nature of the US housing market, the index is expected to weaken to -4.8% m/m from 18.6% last month, with the annual rate dropping to 480K from 504K. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses.
Japan CPI for June is expected to drop to 3.5% from 3.7% y/y. Market to watch: Nikkei 225, USD/JPY.
German IFO for July is forecast to decline, reflecting uncertainty about German economic growth, with business climate falling to 109.4 from 109.7, current assessment from 114.8 to 114.5, and expectations to 104.4 from 104.8. Market to watch: DAX, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP
UK GDP for Q2, economic growth in the UK is forecast to hold steady at 0.8% Q/Q and 3.1% Y/Y. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP
US durable goods orders for June, is expected to rebound in June, to 0.5% from -1% recorded in May while excluding transportation the figure is forecast to hit 0.5% from -0.1%. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses.