Morning Report: Draghi Delivers…Now What?


Fri, 23 Jan 2015

  • It was a huge day for Mario Draghi’s ECB yesterday and the general consensus is that he did not fluff his lines. The highly anticipated QE program came in slightly bigger than expected and so far, there are few holes that analysis have found to pick through. Those holes will no doubt get bigger over time, especially the issue of limited risk sharing, but for now, markets are satisfied.
  • Looking at the big picture, the S&P 500 enjoyed the news though is unchanged this morning. Elsewhere, the dollar index pushed to new highs just as the euro sunk back.

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  • The euro itself dropped further as the larger than expected plan hit the tapes yesterday . The EUR/ USD dropped to its lowest levels since 2003, while the EUR/ JPY is challenging the 134.00 support level. Worse than expected German Flash manufacturing PMI is adding more weight to the decline.

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  • Elsewhere, the AUD/ JPY is dipping significantly despite Chinese flash manufacturing PMI topping estimates. The USD/ JPY are generally weaker, but the Aussie pair is under performing.

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  • Finally, gold is slipping back slightly from the highs.

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Coming up today:
  • Coming up today we have UK retail sales at 09.30.
  • This is followed by Canadian core CPI and retail sales at 13.30.
Trade Idea:
  • So where now for the euro? Draghi has delivered on his part, but now its the politician’s turn. The ECB has done just about all it can with monetary policy in the circumstances, but structural reforms need to be made at the fiscal level. Before we see any evidence of progress here, we could see further euro downside.

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  • A good way to play this is a LOWER trade on the EUR/ JPY predicting that the pair will close below 133.50 in 35 days time for a potential return of 122%.

This is presented as an idea to stimulate fixed odds financial betting ideas and is not financial advice.


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