Morning Report: Mario Draghi Day of Reckoning




Thu, 22 Jan 2015

  • Markets are relatively quiet today as we reach Mario Draghi day of reckoning. He is expected to announce the size and details of the ECB’s bond buying program around 1.30 PM today and little will matter until the plan is released. Markets are expecting the ECB to announce a program in the magnitude of €500bn to €700bn over 18 months, but the amounts may matter less than the perception of the program being open ended. Draghi has a difficult hand to play, keeping the Eurozone and German lawmakers happy at the same time. Will it be a grand plan to save the continent, or a disappointing compromise? Expect a reaction siding with the former, leading to the latter as the details are analysed.
  • So far today, the S&P 500 is taking a glass half full view rising for the third day in a row. The dollar index is holding at the highs.

22-01-2015 08-26-27



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22-01-2015 08-25-54

  • Gold is the biggest mover, down 0.63%, reversing recent gains.

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  • Meanwhile the USD/CAD has continue to rise, up 0.26% today after smashing gains yesterday.

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  • The NZD/USD is also stable after big losses yesterday.

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Coming up today:
  • The ECB is the only real ticket that matters, but we have some warm up events along the way.
  • At 09.00 and 09.25 we have speeches from MPC members Miles and Fisher respectively. Public sector net borrowing figures are released at 09.30, followed by CBI industrial order expectations at 11.00.
  • We have the ECB minimum bid rate at 12.45, but no change is expected here. The big ticket is the ECB press conference at 13.30 .
  • US unemployment claims are released at the same time.
Trade Idea:
  • The euro movements are likely to be something of a lottery today, but it’s worth noting gold’s weakness. It put on a short spurt on the back of the SNB move, but is reversing today. This reversal could have further to run, especially if/when liquidity seeps in on the back of the ECB.

22-01-2015 08-24-59

  • A good way to play this is a LOWER trade predicting that gold will close below $1250 in 7 days time for a potential return of 312%.

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This is presented as an idea to stimulate fixed odds financial betting ideas and is not financial advice.


22-01-2015 08-24-40


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