Morning Report: Markets Stable After Swiss Black Swan





Fri, 16 Jan 2015

  • Markets are relatively quiet after the Swiss National Bank dropped a large boulder in the calm waters of the the EUR/CHF, with ripple effects across the FX world. The moves was completely unexpected and with other fears dominating trader’s radars, the SNB action is an archetypal Black Swan as made famous by Nassim Taleb.

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  • The move saw a surge in interest for the Swiss Franc, which had a knock on effect of selling the euro and hitting the dollar. One leading theory surrounding the activity is that the SNB did not want to get in the way of forthcoming QE from the ECB and if that’s the case then the euro value is likely to be diluted.

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  • The dollar is suffering as traders swap their Greenbacks for Swissy, with the big winner being the Japanese yen as the USD/ JPY drops to the 116.00 area, though is rising this morning.

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  • Stock markets suffered on the news, with the S&P 500 unchanged this morning after heavy falls yesterday.

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Coming up today:
  • Coming up today we have final European CPI at 10.00.
  • This is followed by US CPI at 13.30 and Capacity Utilisation at 14.15. Prelim UoM consumer sentiment follows at 14.55.
Trade Idea:
  • With momentum still firmly against the euro, its a case of picking the right pair to ride the wave lower. The EUR/ JPY has seen the largest falls, but the pair is sitting right on long term support. A better bet might be the EUR/ GBP as yesterday’s slump saw it crash through long term support at 0.7700, with clear skies below this.

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This is presented as an idea to stimulate fixed odds financial betting ideas and is not financial advice.


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