The Week Ahead 11th – 15th August 2014

 

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Global markets suffered heavy losses last week as investor sentiment was dented by ongoing geo-political global tensions which will again be playing a big part in the up-coming week. One of the main casualties of the enhanced sanctions being placed on Russia by the West is the German economy and this was reflected in the drop of the German DAX which dropped 2.2% last week and is now down 10% from its all-time high that was reached on the 20th June.

 

A look at some of the main economic data releases in the week ahead.

 

Tuesday

German ZEW survey for August is expected to fall to 17, dropping from a reading of 27.1 in July. Markets to watch: DAX, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

Wednesday

Japanese preliminary GDP for Q2: Growth is expected to slow with a drop of -1.8% quarter on quarter down from growth of 1.6% in the previous quarter, if the reading comes in as forecast it will be the first negative growth since 2012: Market to watch: Nikkei 225, USD/JPY

German July final CPI is expected to hold at 0.3% month on month and 0.8% year on year: Markets to watch: DAX, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

UK July claimant Count rate is forecast to drop by 30,000 in July, from a drop of 36,300 in June: Markets to watch: FTSE 100 & FTSE 250, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

UK June unemployment rate is forecast to drop from 6.5% to 6.4%: Markets to watch: FTSE 100 & FTSE 250, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

Bank of England inflation report: This semi-annual report consists of the banks projections for inflation in the UK, the press conference will possibly give any clues about the possible timing and intensity of rate increase:. Market to watch FTSE 100 & FTSE 250, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

US July retail sales rose by 0.2% in June, for July retail sales are forecast to rise by 0.3%: Markets to watch: Dow Jones, S&P 500, Russell 2000, NASDAQ 100, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD

Thursday

French Q2 GDP growth in the French economy YoY is forecast to slow to 0.3% from 0.7%: Markets to watch: CAC40, DAX, EStoxx 50, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

German Q2 GDP growth in the German economy is forecast to drop from 2.5% down to 1.2% on a YoY basis: Markets to watch: CAC40, DAX, EStoxx 50, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

Eurozone July final CPI there is no change expected to eurozone CPI for the month, holding at 0.4% for the month: Markets to watch: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

US initial jobless claims dropped back below the 300K mark for the week ending 1 August, the figure is expected to rise slightly, to 290K. Markets to watch: Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD

Friday

UK Q2 second estimate GDP no change to the revision is expected to the GDP estimate for the UK, remaining at 0.8% QoQ and 3.1% YoY. Markets to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

US August Empire manufacturing index the index has been rising steadily over recent months, tracking the improvement in the US economy. For this reading it is expected to slow to a reading of 20 down from a July reading of 25.6: Markets to watch: Dow Jones, S&P 500, Russell 2000, NASDAQ 100, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD

US August preliminary Michigan confidence index this first reading for August is forecast to rise to 82.5, from 81.8 in July: Market: watch: Dow Jones, S&P 500, Russell 2000, NASDAQ 100, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD

 

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