The Week Ahead 4th – 8th August 2014

 

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Volatility returned to global markets last week as continued geopolitical tensions continued, Argentinian defaults and mounting speculation on the timing of monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve resulted in a sharp drops in equities.

In the upcoming week there are some important economic data releases with a main focus on the U.K and Europe. The main releases in the U.K will be the services PMI on Tuesday and industrial and manufacturing production on Wednesday. In the Euro-zone region the main event will be the ECB press conference on Thursday which could inject some volatility into the market.

Economic data of interest due this week

Monday

June Australian retail sales, this main indicator of consumer spending declined last month, missing expectations, a bounce of 0.3% is expected this month: Market to watch: AUD/USD

July UK construction PMI, came in well ahead of expectations last month with 62.6 against 59.7 expected. For this reading a decline to 62.1 is forecast. Market to watch: GBP/USD & EUR/GBP

Tuesday

July Japanese services PMI, a reading of 49.0 is expected: Market to watch: USD/JPY

July Chinese services PMI, in June the survey recorded a 15-month high. Another strong reading is expected for July: Market to watch: China A50, AUD/USD and copper

August RBA bank meeting, no change in rates expected from the current 2.5%: Market to watch: AUD/USD

July French services PMI. Expected reading 50.6: Markets to watch EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, DAX

July German Services PMI. Expected reading 56.6: Markets to watch EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, DAX

July Euro-zone Services PMI. Expected reading 54.4: Markets to watch EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, DAX

July UK services PMI. Expected reading 58.1, up from 57.7 recorded last month: Markets to watch GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, FTSE 100

July U.S. Services PMI. Expected reading 56.6: Market to watch US indices, dollar crosses

Wednesday

June UK industrial and manufacturing production. Month-on-month growth of 0.6% and 0.7% expected. Market to watch GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

Thursday

July Australian unemployment rate. Expected to remain at 6%: Market to watch: AUD/USD, ASX 200

August Bank of England decision, No change is expected. Rates to remain at 0.5%. Quantitative easing static: Market to watch GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

August ECB decision & press conference. Minimum rate to remain on hold at 0.15%. Press conference will offer more clues to policy decisions: Market to watch: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, DAX, CAC

U.S. Initial jobless claims. Expected to increase to 305,000 from last week’s 302,000: Market to watch US dollar crosses, US indices

Friday

July Australian unemployment rate. Expected to remain at 6%. Market to watch: AUD/USD, ASX 200

Chinese trade balance. Expected to fall from $31.6 billion to $26 billion:

 

GO WITH GREEN

 

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