Week Ahead 5th – 9th May




Last week was a busy week for economic data which saw U.S. GDP come in well below expectations with a rise of only 0.1%. Inflation in the euro-zone was also worse than had been expected prompting more speculation around the possibility of the ECB stepping in and providing financial stimulus.  In the U.K. the latest data showed that the UK economy grew by 0.8% in the first three months of the year. Chancellor George Osborne said that the figures showed that “Britain is coming back”. There has been strong manufacturing and services growth which has kept the UK on track of economic recovery. The week ended with release in the U.S. non-farm payrolls on Friday which came in way ahead of forecast with job gains of 288,000 and a drop in the unemployment rate to 6.3%

The main interest in the euro-zone region will be the European Central Bank’s Governing Council meeting on Thursday and the following press conference held by the  ECB chief Mario Draghi’s, no surprises are expected and no fresh action is expected but there may be hints contained within his press conference. With the economic recovery in the U.K. seemingly well under way there will be some important economic data released to re-affirm the growth, the most notable being the Halifax house price index and Markit Services and Composite PMI’s on Tuesday, while on Friday March trade data and industrial production. In the U.S. after the last week’s heavy data load the week ahead is somewhat lower with Non-manufacturing ISM due out on Monday and trade balance figures on Tuesday.

Main Economic data due in the coming week.


Monday –EU: Sentix Investor Confidence, PPI.
US: Final Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
China: HSBC Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday –UK: Services PMI.
EU: Spanish Unemployment Change, Spanish Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, Final Services PMI, Retail Sales.US: Trade Balance, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism.
Wednesday –UK: BRC Shop Price Index.
EU: German Factory Orders, French Industrial Production, French Trade Balance, Retail PMI.
US: Prelim Nonfarm Productivity, Prelim Unit Labor Costs, Consumer Credit.
China: HSBC Services PMI
Thursday –UK: RICS House Price Balance, Asset Purchase Facility, Official Bank Rate.
EU: German Industrial Production, ECB Press Conference.US: Unemployment Claims.
Friday –UK: Manufacturing Production, Trade Balance, Industrial Production, NIESR GDP estimate
EU: German Trade Balance, French Gov Budget Balance, Italian Industrial Production.
US: JOLTS Job Openings, Wholesale Inventories.
China: CPI, PPI

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